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Field Notes companion

Sources by figure

Article references

  1. PrizePicks: announced partnership with Polymarket
  2. PrizePicks: prediction-market exchange and regulatory documents
  3. High Roller: launch of the ROLR prediction-market app
  4. High Roller: prediction-market software agreement with DeepEther Labs
  5. High Roller SEC exhibit: CDNA exclusivity and revenue-sharing agreement
  6. Lumina: conflicts of interest, IBKR relationship and revenue sharing
  7. Lumina: exchange fees and trading commissions
  8. Interactive Brokers: event-contract commissions and exchange fees
  9. Webull: event-contract trading and settlement fees
  10. Cantor: institutional Kalshi block trading with Susquehanna liquidity
  11. BitGo: institutional prediction-market offering and liquidity arrangements
  12. Robinhood: World Cup contracts and the Rothera joint venture
  13. Polymarket: builder program and order-book integration
  14. Betr: how prediction-market prices are calculated
  15. Matchbook: exchange technology and B2B liquidity options
  16. Matchbook: PredictStreet World Cup campaign and shared account access
  17. Plaee: regulated prediction-market infrastructure partnership with CDNA
  18. BitMart US: launch of its Plaee-powered prediction-market offering
  19. ProphetX: Plaee integration for operator onboarding
  20. Robinhood: event-contract products and exchange access
  21. Robinhood: Crypto.com partnership and planned Crypto.com and OG.com equity stakes
  22. DraftKings: launch of its proprietary DKeX exchange
  23. DraftKings: prediction-market terms, exchanges and account arrangements
  24. Underdog: launch of its UDX prediction-market exchange
  25. Underdog: Prediction Picks contract rules
  26. Underdog: supported exchanges and differences in customer access
  27. SEC filing: Fanatics acquisition of Water Street Labs and CX Clearinghouse
  28. Fanatics Markets: introducing-broker terms and CDNA relationship
  29. Public: prediction-market offering and account-provider disclosures
  30. Gemini: second-quarter 2026 results and Olympus clearinghouse operating update
  31. Apex: proposed distribution partnership with Gemini
  32. Novig: Ludlow Exchange member agreement
  33. Novig: Bitnomial Clearinghouse acknowledgement
  34. CFTC: Nasdaq MRX Futures exchange application
  35. Nasdaq MRX Futures: proposed rulebook and CPI binary contracts
  36. SEC: OCC ownership by exchange groups
  37. CFTC: ForumEX exchange application
  38. CFTC: Forum Clearing clearinghouse application
  39. Forum Clearing: corporate ownership structure filed with the CFTC
  40. ForumEX: proposed rulebook, daily settlement and contract rolling
  41. Forum: attention-market product overview
  42. SEC Form 4: Coinbase acquisition of The Clearing Company and merger consideration
  43. CFTC: Coinbase Clearing LLC registration record
  44. Coinbase: consumer prediction-market disclosure naming Kalshi
  45. ICE: launch of Polymarket Signals and Sentiment data services
  46. ICE: Market Signals and Sentiment service terms and trading restrictions
  47. ICE: announcement of a new $600 million investment in Polymarket
  48. Phantom: prediction-market routing and position disclosures
  49. Polymarket: market resolution mechanisms and payout rules

Sources by figure

Supporting material by Splitrule. Source dates and access dates are listed with each document.

The competition for distribution

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Table of exchanges and the consumer apps that offer their contracts. Kalshi: Coinbase, Webull, Public, Robinhood, IBKR, PrizePicks, Sleeper, and Underdog. Polymarket: Bybit, MetaMask, Blockchain.com, and Trust Wallet. Polymarket US: Betr. CDNA (Crypto.com): OG, Robinhood, Underdog, DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, and ROLR. ForecastEx: Robinhood, IBKR, and Lumina. CME: IBKR, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Rothera: Robinhood. DKeX: DraftKings. UDX: Underdog. Gemini Titan: Gemini. Predict.fun: Binance Wallet and Trust Wallet. World: Phantom, for positions from June 1. Some apps offer contracts from several providers.

Context and qualifications

The overview condenses the 21 consumer brands in the October 21 thread and adds OG, Crypto.com’s own prediction app. Provider relationships are not measured trading volume. Trust Wallet’s HIP-4 access remains unverified, and its Myriad roster differs between sources. Polymarket US is a separate exchange. Phantom’s earlier positions used Kalshi through DFlow.

The same exchange that does business as CDNA also operates the OG.com app, which Robinhood names as the venue for its routed football contracts.

PrizePicks lists Kalshi markets and has also announced a multi-year Polymarket partnership. Its current exchange documents name only Kalshi, so the overview shows the live route.

The businesses behind ROLR

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The businesses behind ROLR. High Roller’s ROLR app connects four business roles: DeepEther Labs and mrkts supply the software, ROLR US LLC is the introducing broker, Crypto.com FCM (OG Markets US) carries customer accounts, and CDNA supplies the exchange contracts.

Context and qualifications

Source-code rights and development support

Introduces customers; does not hold their funds

OG Markets US carries accounts and funds

Crypto.com | Derivatives North America

These branches describe roles, not a sequence of order execution.

One purchase, two fee totals

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Hypothetical example: one purchase of 100 ForecastEx contracts at 40 cents each, full fill, transaction fees only, the same contract through either route. Through Lumina: $40.00 contract value, $1.00 exchange fee, and $0.14 commission, for $1.14 in fees and a $41.14 debit. Direct IBKR: $40.00, a $1.00 exchange fee, and no commission, for a $41.00 debit. Of the $1.00 exchange fee charged to the Lumina customer, $0.25, or 25%, goes to Lumina.

Context and qualifications

IBKR’s share of Lumina’s $0.14 commission is undisclosed. These are gross receipts before operating costs.

IBKR’s direct-client schedule exceptions still apply.

Illustrative full fills; same contract access; transaction fees only.

Fees absorb the $4 gain

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Hypothetical Webull example: full fills, transaction fees only. Buying 100 contracts at 40 cents costs $42.00, including a $1 commission and a $1 exchange fee. Selling all 100 at 44 cents returns $42.00 after the same two fees. The $4 price gain minus $4 in total fees leaves $0.

Context and qualifications

100 × $0.40 + $2.00 fees

Entry: $1 commission + $1 exchange fee

100 × $0.44 − $2.00 fees

Exit: $1 commission + $1 exchange fee

Holding through settlement instead has no additional settlement fee under the published fee schedule.

Illustrative full fills; transaction fees only.

Gemini’s operating market

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Gemini’s operating market. Gemini gives customers access to its affiliated exchange, Gemini Titan, which clears through its affiliated clearinghouse, Gemini Olympus. A dashed amber arrow shows proposed outward distribution of Gemini markets through Apex’s FCM network under a nonbinding letter of intent.

Context and qualifications

Gemini reported Olympus clearing operating from August 4, 2026.

Nonbinding letter of intent | August 24: The proposed channel would distribute Gemini contracts outward through Apex’s FCM to other brokerages.

No brokerage customer rollout is established by the announcement.

Novig’s external clearer

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Novig’s external clearer. Ludlow operates Novig’s exchange. An arrow from Novig and Ludlow shows DCO clearing membership with the external Bitnomial Clearinghouse.

Context and qualifications

September 2 membership documents name the external clearinghouse.

Separate from Bitnomial Exchange: This relationship supplies clearing, not the exchange contracts offered by Novig.

Brokerage access

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Brokerage access. Coinbase, Webull, and Public each connect to Kalshi. Robinhood connects to Kalshi, Rothera, CDNA, and ForecastEx. Interactive Brokers connects to ForecastEx, Kalshi, and CME. Lumina connects to ForecastEx, and IBKR carries Lumina accounts. Gemini connects to Gemini Titan.

Context and qualifications

Exclusive execution arrangement; IBKR carries its accounts.

Affiliated exchange; the Apex channel remains proposed.

Sports apps and new brands

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Sports apps and new brands, with the exchanges named in each app’s disclosures. PrizePicks and Sleeper connect to Kalshi. Underdog connects to Kalshi, UDX, and Nadex (CDNA). DraftKings connects to DKeX, CME, and CDNA. FanDuel connects to CME and CDNA. Fanatics Markets connects to CDNA, and its retail terms still name CDNA. ROLR connects to CDNA. Betr connects to Polymarket US.

Context and qualifications

CDNA access appears in the primary disclosure.

Retail terms still name CDNA. Migration after its acquisition remains unverified.

See “The businesses behind ROLR” for its separate broker, account, and software roles.

Separate US book. Display uses midpoint, or last trade when the spread exceeds 10 cents.

Wallets and crypto apps

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Wallets and crypto apps. Bybit, MetaMask, and Blockchain.com connect to Polymarket. Trust Wallet connects to Polymarket and Predict.fun, with dashed amber lines to Hyperliquid HIP-4, where access is unverified, and to Myriad, where provider listings conflict. Binance Wallet connects to Predict.fun. Phantom connects to World for positions from June 1, and to Kalshi through DFlow before then.

Context and qualifications

HIP-4 is listed; live access is unverified. Myriad appears in conflicting provider rosters.

Named as primary provider, not an exclusive route.

Positions from June 1 use World. Earlier positions used Kalshi through DFlow.

Polymarket builder orders share its central order book; app attribution can describe the same execution.

More market-access products

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More market-access products. Market access: Wealthsimple Predict to Kalshi. Invited early access, dashed: NinjaTrader to Kalshi. Event-contract access: Tradovate to CME. Software and shared account, historical and dashed: PredictStreet to Matchbook, from a June to July campaign. Software deployment: BitMart US to Plaee, with its exchange and account provider unknown.

Context and qualifications

A separate mobile app and account with Wealthsimple Investments Inc. (WSI).

Standalone platform. NTC is the FCM; Kalshi Klear is the DCO.

Its own documented offering. NTC is the FCM; no Kalshi route inferred.

June 9–July 30 campaign. Triplebet operates the account. Current operations and pool mode are unresolved.

June 12 launch release. Exchange and carrying entity remain unidentified.

Kraken’s product range

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Kraken’s product range, with no arrows. Kraken main app: prediction markets not offered. Kraken Pro Price Predictor: a free game with noncash Ink Points. Kraken Derivatives US: a NinjaTrader Clearing alias, with market access unverified.

Context and qualifications

Prediction markets are marked as not offered in Kraken’s company comparison.

Free game with noncash Ink Points. Excluded from the executable-contract map.

Documented alias of NinjaTrader Clearing LLC. A prediction-market interface and route remain unverified.

Ownership does not establish access: Payward’s acquired businesses have separate operating evidence. No prediction exchange arrow is added to these rows.

Negotiated Kalshi blocks

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Negotiated Kalshi blocks. Pricing and liquidity: Susquehanna Predictions to the Cantor channel. Introducing-broker access: Cantor to Kalshi’s block framework, negotiated away from the central order book.

Context and qualifications

Named liquidity affiliate in the August 19 announcement.

Clients negotiate a single price away from the central order book.

Cantor announced the institutional channel on August 19, 2026.

A bilateral OTC position

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A bilateral OTC position. Liquidity supply: Susquehanna Crypto to BitGo OTC. The customer contract is a bilateral OTC derivative with digital-asset collateral, and BitGo is the counterparty. The hedge venue is unknown.

Context and qualifications

Named in BitGo’s March 25 launch.

Event-linked derivatives are bilateral and over the counter. Customers can post digital assets as collateral.

Hedge venue unidentified: The disclosure does not name an upstream hedge exchange or the exact contracting subsidiary. No exchange route is drawn.

Software can support different pools

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Software can support different pools. Matchbook’s available configurations are a shared pool across brands or a separate pool for one product. Named software deployment, historical and dashed: PredictStreet to Matchbook, from a June to July campaign with a shared account and wallet. The account operator is Triplebet Limited. PredictStreet’s pool type and current status are unverified.

Context and qualifications

Shared liquidity: brands can use a common pool. Ring-fenced structure: activity can sit in a separate pool.

The June 9–July 30 campaign identifies Matchbook technology and the same account and wallet.

Operator/account: Triplebet Limited.

Deployment mode unresolved: Account continuity does not identify the matching pool. The campaign does not establish current October operations.

Plaee’s separate relationships

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Plaee’s separate relationships. Technology and venue integration: Plaee to CDNA. Venue integration in beta, dashed amber: Plaee to ProphetX. Named software deployment: BitMart US to Plaee, with its exchange and account provider unknown. Announced distribution partnership, dashed: Optimove to Plaee.

Context and qualifications

January 20 partnership: contract and liquidity integration.

September 30 announcement.

June 12 launch. Exact venue and carrying entity unresolved.

Vendor-reported channel. No customer launches inferred.

ROLR supplies the separate DeepEther / mrkts deployment example in “The businesses behind ROLR.”

Accounts and clearing

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Accounts and clearing. Account providers: Public to Public’s own FCM and Apex Clearing (FCM). Account and API access: Apex Clearing (FCM) to Kalshi. Funds and clearing FCM: DraftKings (GUS III) to Wedbush Securities. Account provider: Coinbase to Coinbase Financial Markets. Early-access framework, dashed: NinjaTrader to NTC as account FCM and Kalshi Klear as DCO. DCO clearing: Polymarket US to QC Clearing.

Context and qualifications

Open to the Public Investing and Apex are named FCMs.

Documented infrastructure; no launch inferred for every Apex client.

Wedbush acts through the applicable DCO. Bitnomial Clearinghouse appears in the broader terms, without an allocation for every contract.

Tradovate separately names NTC as its FCM.

Gemini and Novig’s clearing relationships appear in “Gemini’s operating market” and “Novig’s external clearer.” Wealthsimple’s WSI account appears in “More market-access products.”

Ownership alongside outside access

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Ownership alongside outside access. Joint-venture affiliation: Robinhood and Susquehanna to Rothera. Owned exchanges: DraftKings to DKeX, and Underdog to UDX. Completed acquisition: Fanatics to Water Street Labs and CX Clearinghouse. Fanatics’ retail terms still name CDNA. Announced equity stakes, dashed: Robinhood to Crypto.com and OG.com, planned after OG’s spin-off.

Context and qualifications

Separate from the group’s named liquidity affiliates.

Closed August 5. Retail terms still name CDNA; migration remains unverified.

Planned after OG’s spin-off.

Common control and exclusive access

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Common control and exclusive access. Common individual control: Thomas Peterffy to Lumina and IBKR Group. Ownership: IBKR Group to ForecastEx. Exclusive account carrying: Lumina to Interactive Brokers. Exclusive execution: Lumina to ForecastEx.

Context and qualifications

This is not a claim that IBKR Group owns Lumina.

Coinbase: separate dated facts

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Coinbase: separate dated facts. A conditional announcement of The Clearing Company acquisition, expected to close in January. January 2, 2026: merger consideration received, recording the completed acquisition in an SEC filing. September 28, 2026: Coinbase Clearing LLC registered as a clearinghouse. Disclosed retail route: Kalshi, which current customer documentation names.

Context and qualifications

The original announcement expected a January close; completion is separately supported below.

January 6 SEC filing reports consideration from the completed acquisition.

CFTC DCO registration establishes authorization. The application describes proposed clearing activity.

Current Coinbase consumer documentation identifies Kalshi as the market operator.

Retail migration unverified: No legal-successor link between The Clearing Company and Coinbase Clearing LLC is inferred here.

Payward’s Bitnomial ownership

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Payward’s Bitnomial ownership. Payward, Kraken’s parent, completed its acquisition of the Bitnomial group on May 1, 2026. The group owns three separate entities: Bitnomial Exchange, Bitnomial Clearing for FCM account services, and Bitnomial Clearinghouse for DCO clearing.

Context and qualifications

No group-wide route inferred: These separate legal roles do not establish event-contract access in every Kraken, NinjaTrader, or Tradovate interface.

Two proposed clearing models

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Two proposed clearing models: proposed exchange and clearing arrangements. Proposed clearing, dashed amber: Nasdaq MRX Futures to OCC. Its exchange application is pending since October 26, and its proposed CPI binaries would pay $100 or $0. Ownership: Forum Markets Group owns 100% of ForumEX and Forum Clearing, whose applications are pending since August 21 and August 3. Proposed clearing, dashed amber: ForumEX to Forum Clearing, for index contracts that settle each trading day and roll forward by default.

Context and qualifications

Exchange application pending since October 26. Its proposed CPI binaries would pay $100 or $0.

Applications pending since August 21 (ForumEX) and August 3 (Forum Clearing).

Index contracts settle each trading day and roll forward by default.

CFTC records list Nasdaq MRX Futures, LLC as a pending DCM applicant dated October 26, 2026, ForumEX LLC as a pending DCM applicant dated August 21, 2026, and Forum Clearing LLC as pending DCO registration dated August 3, 2026. Present-tense wording inside an application does not establish approval or operation.

Nasdaq’s proposed rulebook defines its Clearing Corporation as The Options Clearing Corporation and specifies year-over-year headline and core CPI contracts as binary cash-or-nothing options that settle at $100 or $0. A February 13, 2019 SEC order lists five equal OCC stockholder exchanges, two of them owned by Nasdaq, so OCC is a shared clearinghouse rather than a Nasdaq subsidiary.

Forum Clearing’s corporate structure exhibit shows Forum Markets Group Inc. as the 100% owner of ForumEX LLC and Forum Clearing LLC. The joint rulebook describes collared contracts on an index, cash-settled at the end of each trading day and rolled into the next day’s contract unless a holder opts out or lacks margin. Forum’s site calls it an attention market. No retail distributor or Kalshi or Polymarket connection is drawn.

Data distribution and investment

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Data distribution and investment. Data supply and distribution: Polymarket to ICE data services, for normalized market data. Equity investment: ICE to Polymarket, with $600 million confirmed in March after $1 billion earlier.

Context and qualifications

Normalized data product launched February 11, 2026.

March 27 confirms $600 million invested, following an earlier $1 billion.

The data service does not execute trades: The service terms offer no trading or link-through execution. Exclusivity remains prospective in the published terms.

Phantom’s position-date split

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Phantom’s position-date split. Before June 1, 2026, historical and dashed: Phantom positions to DFlow and Kalshi, as tokenized Kalshi contracts. From June 1, 2026: Phantom positions to World, which uses Solana liquidity providers and automatic redemption. Oracle example: World framework to Chainlink. Liquidity providers and hedge venues are unnamed.

Context and qualifications

DFlow tokenizes Kalshi contracts. Account and token rights are not assumed identical.

World routes to Solana liquidity providers and uses automatic redemption.

Named in Phantom’s disclosure; not a per-contract dependency audit.

Liquidity-provider identities unknown: World’s LPs and their hedge venues remain unidentified.

Resolution and wallet services

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Resolution and wallet services. Polymarket uses UMA as a resolution oracle and Chainlink TWAP for up/down resolution. Predict.fun makes a broad UMA resolver statement, shown dashed in amber because its scope conflicts with a BTC-specific announcement. Predict.fun uses Chainlink for BTC 15-minute markets and Privy with ZeroDev for wallet infrastructure.

Context and qualifications

Conflicts in scope with the BTC category announcement below.

Category-specific oracle and workflow announcement.

Collateral and new platforms

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Collateral and new platforms. Collateral yield: Predict.fun to Venus. Disclosed collateral yield: Trueo TYD to Yearn. Disclosed backing asset: Trueo TYD to USDC. Meridian: provider information unavailable.

Context and qualifications

Provider documentation; no independent yield verification.

A backing statement is not a reserve audit.

Meridian: supplier, oracle, and liquidity-provider information is unavailable.

Trueo and Meridian are two emerging checks, outside the 20-entry market-system index.

Other market-system roles

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Other market-system roles. Software library: Myriad to polkamarkets-js. Announced institutional partnership, dashed: Limitless to ParlayX. Opinion offers a CLOB SDK as a developer toolkit. Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 is an outcome-asset framework, and Trust Wallet access to it is unverified.

Context and qualifications

No shared book or commercial license terms inferred.

Announced partnership; outside the retail-consumer count.

Documented developer capability; no named deployed distributor inferred.

Documented outcome-asset framework. Trust Wallet lists HIP-4, but live access is unverified.

Article by Matt. Supporting material by Splitrule.

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