Sources for “When matching market headlines produce different payouts”

Supporting material by Splitrule. Public records inspected October 14, 2026.

Read the article | Methods and calculations

These are selected cases, not a representative sample. Polymarket means its international platform. Historical rule fields describe what the APIs returned when inspected; they do not prove unchanged pre-trade wording.

C01. Microsoft Cybersecurity, July 29, 2026

Kalshi contract: KXEARNINGSMENTIONMSFT-26JUL29-CYBE. Polymarket condition: 0x0cc1b4fc32e9cd927f83ba369dc66add27e24359a73bbbed8e6cc196543672c9.

Recorded Yes settlement: Kalshi $0.00; Polymarket Yes was the final winning outcome.

Kalshi record read 2026-10-14T15:03:37.057903+00:00; Polymarket event read 2026-10-14T15:03:39.121113+00:00; Polymarket finality cross-check read 2026-10-14T15:12:07.535132+00:00.

The official Microsoft transcript contains one target-word occurrence, in Brad Zelnick’s question. The retrieved descriptions differ on eligible speakers. This supports the explanation without establishing the adjudicators’ reasoning. Official transcript.

C02. Lyft Competition, November 5, 2025

Kalshi contract: KXEARNINGSMENTIONLYFT-25NOV05-COMP. Polymarket condition: 0x1267269871b5923526863f27208895631506911d22f09f141f3ec733221d8a96.

Recorded Yes settlement: Kalshi $0.00; Polymarket Yes was the final winning outcome.

Kalshi record read 2026-10-14T15:04:21.696511+00:00; Polymarket event read 2026-10-14T15:04:20.775191+00:00; Polymarket finality cross-check read 2026-10-14T15:12:22.219490+00:00.

The final records disagree. The call’s original audio and individual word occurrences were not audited, so no specific cause is assigned.

C03. Walmart SNAP, November 20, 2025

Kalshi contract: KXEARNINGSMENTIONWMT-26MAR31-SNAP. Polymarket condition: 0xd84a95b0fdfa8d3584ce2e40f563b6fb5d892a9876a748d476abdf1313998cb6.

Recorded Yes settlement: Kalshi $0.00; Polymarket Yes was the final winning outcome.

Kalshi record read 2026-10-14T15:07:46.621509+00:00; Polymarket event read 2026-10-14T15:04:21.619188+00:00; Polymarket finality cross-check read 2026-10-14T15:12:25.336773+00:00.

The November 20 pairing is inferred from the next-call wording, opening and settlement dates, and position in the event series. The retrieved Kalshi subtitle instead names March 31, 2026. That metadata conflict remains unresolved.

C04. FedEx Truck, December 18, 2025

Kalshi contract: KXEARNINGSMENTIONFDX-26MAR31-TRUC. Polymarket condition: 0x816901f9eb4f9e83792eb5781d5bc22ffffc2bca01772af1a0a3e6d2ff9edb5a.

Recorded Yes settlement: Kalshi $0.00; Polymarket Yes was the final winning outcome.

Kalshi record read 2026-10-14T15:07:44.937404+00:00; Polymarket event read 2026-10-14T15:05:13.401921+00:00; Polymarket finality cross-check read 2026-10-14T15:12:23.853085+00:00.

The next-call wording and event chronology support the December 18 pairing despite the later Kalshi ticker suffix. The word-form and speaker rules differ; the cause of this result was not independently established.

C05. Wells Fargo Buyback, January 14, 2026

Kalshi contract: KXEARNINGSMENTIONWFC-26JUN30-BUYB. Polymarket condition: 0x7bee92b0560de66d594279cc45197dc998c7cb3d13aae41c48789dd8cd512468.

Recorded Yes settlement: Kalshi $0.00; Polymarket Yes was the final winning outcome.

Kalshi record read 2026-10-14T15:07:46.339537+00:00; Polymarket event read 2026-10-14T15:05:14.774758+00:00; Polymarket finality cross-check read 2026-10-14T15:12:25.287058+00:00.

The event metadata identifies the January 14 call despite the later Kalshi ticker suffix. The final records disagree; the speaker or word-form cause was not audited.

C06. Cardi B at Super Bowl LX, February 8, 2026

Kalshi contract: KXPERFORMSUPERBOWLB-26-CAR. Polymarket condition: 0x891d4a752d5e8e7a7d707b6f40141975f1e469616c4ff74f8cf02869a0159cfa.

Recorded Yes settlement: Kalshi $0.26; Polymarket Yes was the final winning outcome.

Kalshi record read 2026-10-14T15:06:26.834546+00:00; Polymarket event read 2026-10-14T15:03:59.176243+00:00; Polymarket finality cross-check read 2026-10-14T15:12:24.409811+00:00.

Kalshi’s current record identifies a Rule 13.1 suspension. Front Office Sports reports settlement at the last-traded price as fair value after an ambiguous performance. That explanation is attributed reporting, not an independent rulebook finding. Kalshi’s scope included a performance or its announcement; Polymarket specified a live, in-person halftime performance. Kalshi settled at 11:53 p.m. Eastern on February 8. Polymarket’s recorded close was 1:50 a.m. Eastern on February 12; this is a different clock field.

C07. Hantavirus, October 14 observation

The retrieved Kalshi description requires a qualifying WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern declaration. The Polymarket description requires a pandemic characterization and excludes a PHEIC alone. The article tests that conditional scenario; it makes no prediction about the outbreak.

Kalshi listing, Kalshi designated source, and Polymarket description. Both were open at the morning observation. This is not a current availability claim.

C08. Bitcoin, October 14, 11:00–11:15 a.m. Eastern

The final records agree: Kalshi No and Polymarket Down. Different reference-price definitions did not produce different outcomes in this window.

Kalshi final record read 2026-10-14T16:17:51.215413+00:00.

Polymarket final event read 2026-10-14T16:17:52.267124+00:00.

Polymarket finality cross-check read 2026-10-14T16:19:03.245800+00:00.

Prior reporting

The earnings-market comparison supplied seven candidates. This research checked five. Its sample count is not used here.

Benny Ricciardi’s Bitcoin comparison describes other divergent windows. Its sample was not reproduced for this article.